State of the union
Just two weeks into the 2026, we have had:
- Bombed Venezuela
- ICE flooded MN, killed a citizen, and government instantly doubled down
- Threaten to take Greeland “one way or another”
- POTUS mused about not needing midterm election
The bad trajectory
In the worst projection where US plunges into a full fascist nation, a few key things need to happen or fail to happen. For instance, ICE could keep grow and become de facto Public Police. A possible fascist pathway would then involve ICE suppressing democratic process, and/or becomes the forerunners of military “law enforcement” (curfew, martial law via Insurrection Act). At the moment, invoking the Insurrection Act would backfire more than it helps the fascist agenda. But if ICE and right-wing media are given a few more months to build up the narrative and create chaos, this roadblock may get cleared.
A variation of the above pathway would be assaulting the free press with excuse linked to terrorism or illegal immigration or both. Or, with the help of oligarchy (e.g. CBS).
Another possibility is starting a war internationally, and enabling more national security related persecutions and pretext for radical martial law-like control.
The better trajectory
The 2026 midterm can restore the balance of power, somewhat, if it happens ordinarily and the Democrats win enough seats in the house. However, it is not obvious that with just a simple majority, Democrats can actually do anything about the Executive power, especially if the GOP and the Supreme Court insist on enabling the White House’s agenda without question.
Another possibility is if money becomes big enough of a concern. And the GOP members flip side and help limit the destruction. I say money because it is clear they mostly do not have ideological consistency, as evident in the recent objection over the J Powell’s criminal investigation, they may only listen to money.
Finally, there’s the possibility that GOP politicians want to win 2028 elections via democratic process thus mean-reverse to distance themselves from the administration after the midterm. The dynamics is almost certainly there, unless the POTUS declare a third term, and/or a designated heir of the authoritarian regime.